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2020年底,该如何把握买房时机?

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发布时间:2020-10-12 14:45:25
Prices of the 3rd quarter ends building city already.

In the whole nation much ground comes on stage new politics bomb and room borrow interest rate sole to turn over firm hind, node of traditional busy season of city of so called building " gold 9 " successful break an appointment.

How does the fourth quarter go next, all in all.

Nevertheless everybody had had an idea in the heart it seems that, because of this paragraph of time, each media is in from each angle of analytic building city " deplorable " .

Singing empty mood to conduct, everybody thinks " silver-colored 10 " lead meeting pace probably " gold 9 " follow. As a result of " buy go up to be not bought drop " , a lot of people gave up even the think of a way that buys a house.

If you are such person, feel sorry you or a building city Xiaobai that are accused by mood palm. Should know to be able to handhold truly the person of the opportunity, often be have independence " logistic thinking " , not follow the general trend. Next, might as well listen child these a few proposals of wood.

One
Big trend
Above all we want deduction big trend of whole.

According to conch newest data shows, 3 quarters focal point represented 18 cities 2020 secondhand the residence clinchs a deal actually measure annulus comparing to glide 9% , accumulative total of before 3 quarters clinchs a deal the volume rises 4% compared to the same period, exceed instead last year the corresponding period.


This information is very important, the interpreter becomes become known word:
1, the 3rd quarter, namely 2020 7-9 month, the market clinchs a deal to glide all the way, secondhand room market condition is not quite good.

2, but the expression of before this year 3 quarters is bit more not bad than last year, this means epidemic situation to be opposite the scar of building city, fill before September 30 came back.

7-9 month, we also know, after conference of the Political Bureau leaves, building city encounters suddenly urgent adjusting control is wet. This may result from in " the loop inside economy " the strategy leaves big country, authorities to part of this phase estate define again.

Can say, 3 firm fundamental key will be carried out 2020 from beginning to end.

So, the four seasons is spent, besides developing business to fold a spoondrift that sells a room to arouse through hitting, market level big probability will be weak at the 3rd quarter.

the four seasons is spent, city of the building in will becoming a year's coldest time paragraph. Clinch a deal the amount is small fan, selling office there is few visitors will become normal state. This is integral trend.

2
Live firmly feel distressed
Prices of the end of the year is not quite good, how should make choice as the person that buy a house so? A few reasons must understand before this.

Above all building city prices is cool, the most anxious is not buyer, however bargainor. No matter be development,business still is secondhand room owner, the end of the year this paragraph of time is uneasy.

Develop business this year especially pressure head of 3 red line, business of a few development must want to increase the strength that return a money; Secondhand room owner, basically center on the owner body that has replacement demand.

Building town business is abided by " Bo Yili is talked " , the bargainor is more anxious, buyer space is larger. Year end this paragraph of time, can have a lot of bamboo shoot dish and dozen fold new dish flow into the market, and opposite at annual, you still can have enough argy-bargy space with the bargainor.

This paragraph of time, the clever person that buy a house is in the fourth of the twelve Earthly Branches became sufficient interest is thinking how " copy a copy " .

So must not by a lot of media sing empty mood place to affect, you are OK Baidu, the 3rd quarter, the four seasons was spent last year, how many is there to sing empty text on market? And occurrence Indian summer of the coming year, how many is sing again go up?
Spin time line, the station visits building town in sacred perspective, you want to do, want to study the building city of target city is periodic namely, clinch a deal data ripe at the heart.

3
Find cycle
How does in the final analysis analyse somebody the building city that oneself are in a city is periodic, judge is end high point or low after all 2020?
It is very difficult really that this makes deduction to Everyman. Need makes detailed estate data inference and purchasing power judgement. But here I tell everybody the simplest judgement method.

1, had continued to visit balmy weather in the tenth lunar month. I am in a point of view offerred during epidemic situation Feburary this year, "The city of Indian summer appears after epidemic situation, house price big probability enters bottom.

The logic that prop up is: Indian summer is the time with room the most active market is bought in a year paragraph, if this paragraph of time as before a depression, explain building city purchasing power has used up almost to use up really. If appear to hand in,rebound, demonstrative city just needed purchasing power to had been answered firm.


I took a picture through conch academy March:
The city such as Chengdu, Xi'an, Shenzhen, Beijing, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing, Jinan, Yantai, Changsha, Dalian appears Indian summer evidence, the house price big probability of these cities can be in this year the end of the year " sole " .

So these cities are OK next of the car on choose machine.

We again according to Indian summer, find out bridal chamber of before this year 3 quarters to sell better city.


Can see from inside the graph, the city such as Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Xiamen this year clinch a deal expression all prep above does not have epidemic situation 2019. Explain the purchasing power of these cities has restored, the end of the year is OK get on a car.

Be in of course this among them, get in 7-9 month the city of adjusting control, today annual end suggests to had better not get on a car. Because of the basis historical experience, as long as by adjusting control hind, the metropolis that estimate value has substantially fall after a rise, for example Dongguan, carry on is promoted, Ning Bo, need awaits the opportunity of next year.

Divide this beyond, what bridal chamber of before 3 quarters sells is good, all can get on a car.

Performance of before 3 quarters is disappointing, it is city of exemple as usual, Fosan, Changchun, OK to do not have city of city of stannum, salt, Nanchang, peaceful, spring city await.

4
Proposal
Next, everybody must pay close attention to year of end particularly the prices of this paragraph of time, eliminate was hit October break a month beyond, will arrive November especially the Spring Festival this paragraph of time.

If appear,become warped end prices, leave after year, must get on a car quickly. Become warped because of the end of the year end, appear to hand in in the coldest season rebound, the coming year can receive balmy weather in the tenth lunar month necessarily. Purchase in the end of the year, can step on bottom prices.

In light of cent city energy level. Divide city of line of just a little now, blaze of 34 lines city is complete subsidise. And the person buy a house of 34 lines need not anxious, the end of the year buys a house this year, perhaps be possible next year.

Those who want an attention is, general 34 lines city is hit fold the probability that sells a house opposite at line of just a little lesser, because development trade measure is little, can rise jointly resistance depreciates disturbance selling a house. So I suggest, buy a house in 34 lines city next, staring at bridal chamber market to death, go looking more secondhand room.