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Short-term innovation is tall but in long-term weak force does not change, how can affect other asse

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发布时间:2020-10-04 14:23:53

2020 up to now, of the dollar go situation is OK saying is 3 fold.

New coronal of the beginning of the year is pneumonic epidemic situation is eruptive beginning, global market enters capital indiscriminate undersell mode, avoiding danger mood drive falls, the dollar makes the home of global capital, the dollar stands to be nodded high 102.8. Do not cross couplet is in the beauty store after rolling out a series of blame convention monetary policy in succession, dollar fluidity insecurity gets alleviating, till in May end, dollar index is maintained fluctuate in 98 upper part. Stimulate plan and American oneself 2 times in euro area finance subsequently below the joint action with eruptive epidemic situation, end was mixed in May the dollar was experienced two rounds in July relatively substantially devalue. After August, economy of beautiful Europe economy anabiosises tend smooth, the dollar begins to be inside 94 interval of 92 ~ maintain concussion.

And in September 21 ~ were become on September 25, case of illness of diagnose of new coronal of European and other places returns to increase a current quickly, general election of together with United States draws near cause uncertainty element to increase, the dollar achieves close half an year to come again the biggest a week goes up, pick up near two months perch. But later a week, of dollar index drop again 0.8% , record so that the biggest odd week dropped since end in August.

So, does the dollar go next situation meeting how? Whether does the dollar meet what worry like partial market personage lose reserve money status in that way?

Short-term or still have rise space

In September the bottom achieves two months new tall hind, dollar index goes low once more last week. But in many analysises the personage looks, nominal is answered fill, epidemic situation is the influence of foreground, new to economy round of finance stimulates measure be difficult to do and uncertainty of American general election to wait to will support a dollar short-term continue to rise.

Trade according to commodity futures committee (CFTC) data, up to became on September 22, achieve to developing the dollar nominal of fund hold to maintain a warehouse since November 2017 highest value, and same week, the dollar achieves close half an year to come the biggest odd week goes up, if the dollar goes strong further,this is meant, face make friends empty risk possibly to pouring fund.

Division Francesco Pesole represents strategy of ING foreign currency, bear money market is in the dollar to be nodded high for years, decrease a storehouse in time impossibly when Zhou Dou, so nominal of may farther benefit from benefit from answers the dollar fill.

I if only we had been done much. BlueBay asset manages the Mark Dowding of presiding investment officer of the company to express, he makes the same score a storehouse last month change direction after dollar bear money market indifferent, economic data has shown disappointing sign, epidemic situation becomes form smoke into smother, and new round of stimulative step has not come on stage, these metropolises support a dollar to go tall.

Same hopeful is in epidemic situation and uncertainty of American general election the short-term dollar that prop up. On October 2, american president Telangpu announces diagnose contracts new coronal virus, your investor feels disturbed, hit risk mood.

Did not come to a few weeks, the market will be full of uncertainty, include condition of ground predestined relationship general election of exasperate, United States, take off violent wind of Ou Feng danger to rise without the agreement and the newest trends of case of illness of European epidemic situation. The Audrey Childe-Freeman that Peng rich industry studies thinks, all these elements increase a fluctuation likely, this should conduce to a dollar.

CFTC newest report shows, up to became on September 23, the head of dollar speculation headroom of adventurer hold reduced 3591 hands to come 5555 hands agreement, show investor is short-term the desire that sees empty dollar drops in temperature.

Or lose reserve money status?

Although the dollar is short-term,still have rebound space, but in eye of major market personage, the long-term weak force trend in the dollar is firm already. Beautiful couplet store policy continues problem of double deficit of the debt risk of comfortable, United States and finance trade all is in creating a dollar long-term bear the element that control.

The Wu Jiajun that spend a banner says when accepting reporter of the first finance and economics to interview, the closest period of time, main area element is chilly to the dollar. No matter be dollar appraise value, still be negative exterior account, or is beautiful couplet the operation that the infuse in system of money of Chu Xiangquan ball measures a dollar indefinitely, point to dollar be issued to lower levels.

Above all, from the point of exterior account angle, go 10 years, only balance of payments of the United States worsens considerably. In addition he still says, there is double deficit problem all the time since American economy is long-term. According to estimation, american finance deficit may expand to 17% of GDP further, rank develop first of the market.

Office of budget of United States Congress (CBO)9 predicts 21 days month, 195% what American debt will obtain gross domestic product 2050, prep above this year 98% with 79% 2019. Under photograph comparing, before this forecast 180% what will obtain gross domestic product for Wu of beautiful 2050 national debt.

Wu Jiajun points out, these deficit also need capital to make up for. Accordingly, below the circumstance that in American finance main area worsens, overseas investor can get compensatory exclusive mechanism is a dollar devalue. Meanwhile, this, beautiful couplet store the means money that passes most finance deficit very likely hair debt is changed, accordingly, the base of the current dollar on the market can increase, this is corresponding also can go to the dollar situation form constant pressure.

And accompany the market to be opposite beautiful couplet store in the still pair of dollars lay in monetary status doubt reputation of the judgement that takes weak trend for a long time. Among them of the most fetching attention is Europe of Dali of author of water of bridge of pairs of the whole world is the greatest strong fund (Ray Dalio) caution. Dali Europe said in interview recently, the dollar lays in positional front of the money to face menace as the whole world. Although be as high as the government spending of several dollars and monetary investment to make the stock market and gold are benefited, but also be these large-scale exciting policy are bringing about a dollar to devalue, american government is checking a government very likely still to stimulate go too far of measure limit respect.

But also many market personages think as before, because a few advantages of the dollar still are put, its lay in monetary status still hard by shake.

Near future of Lu Bini of professor of economics of Stern business school writes new York university civil say, look for a long time from which, still a variety of elements conduce to maintain position of dominant of dollar whole world.

He says, the dollar will continue the capital control with the system of flexible exchange rate with a comprehensive foundation, finite benefit from benefit from and deep and the bond market that has liquidity, more important is, replace a money to be able to be used as the sweeping price measure, value memory that pays method and stability without what any making clear at all.

Lu Bini still expresses, although by epidemic situation devastate, but American economy is average of 2 % potential year of increase rate still prep above is other most (growth is close to 1 % ) develop economic system. American economy serves in technology of such as science and technology, biology, pharmacy, health care and advanced finance there still are vigor and competition ability in waiting for a lot of and advanced industry, and these industries will continue to attract foreign capital flow into.

Fluidity element supported the position of the dollar likewise. Liquidate a bank according to international a report April 2019, the day of the dollar trades on average the quantity is yen is fivefold, it is the double above of euro. When epidemic situation is the most serious in March, investor is contended for buy a dollar, bring about violent wind of dollar exchange rate to rise, foreign currency is dropped period the leasehold cost of the market also rises considerably. This makes beautiful couplet then store with other Central Bank collaboration increases a dollar to supply.

How to affect other asset?

Golden company near future releases in grind the newspaper says, have not observe dollar index near future is short-term the sign that goes strong to bring apparent global dollar fluidity to tighten up, main fluidity index still is maintained low, but if rising market exchange rate and capital flow to heavy goods and part to still be met possibly,a few pairs of dollars take the asset with subtle sign be squelched by level sex.

This character is not empty, ~ was become on September 25 on September 21, 2 months are achieved in dollar index new tall while, rising market debt collects city to all be recorded so that the wrongest odd week goes since March situation.

Current market sentiment is relatively flimsy, gain profit time say pressure bigger. Accordingly, short-term inside the market may continue the since concussion at the beginning of September dish whole situation. Nevertheless, exceeding fears the market repeats other wave motion mixed class to drop to have possibly also greatly in March too pessimistic disrelish, the rehabilitate of the economy after the reason depends on integral epidemic situation still is continueing. Although policy foreground faces certain uncertainty, but the very comfortable fundamental key before whole still maintained this and there still is space of raise the quota below extreme case. Golden company says in.

But in gold also shows, if the United States will choose affection to appear in November bigger uncertainty, or arrived after November, american finance and monetary policy still cannot publish advantageous to economy plan, the market will suffer stronger caudal risk against the wind.

And in the dollar long-term weak force can affect American stock market. Through tearing open the general that see sign the composition of 500 indexes battalion receives discovery, the enterprise battalion of about 43% closes outside coming from Yu Hai. And in a lot of industry, board of science and technology piece overseas sale n ranks the first place, abroad income is occupied than amounting to 58% .

Go from the history in light of situation, the battalion of 500 enterprises receives dollar index and mark general add fast present negative correlativity, this also makes exchange rate element or the activator that will become profit of company of prospective drive US stock to pick up.

Calculate according to what fill high, commerce increases authority dollar index every defeat 10% will push general raising bid 500 indexes EPS grows 3% . Among them, as a result of pannikin more sensitive to the growth of gain, pannikin of period of weak in the past dollar ever ran win grail.

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  • Hind Xin tung

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