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恒大集团:若恒大地产不能按时完成重组 或引发系统性风险

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发布时间:2020-09-24 18:23:08
  Introduction:
1400 beyond wait for repay! Cash shedding ruptures earnestly of shortly constant big dispatch supports major asset to recombine please
Constant big group recombines the circumstance of the project to report about adjuring support to weigh big capital fund
The net passes Heng Daken to ask governmental support to answer question of its core of the analysis inside A course of study is battle is cast to betting

  1400 beyond wait for repay! Cash shedding ruptures earnestly of shortly constant big dispatch supports major asset to recombine please
On August 20, 2020, live built ministry, Central Bank to talk about 12 rooms look forward to about, 3 red line that cast financing of look forward to giving a room (call " financing new rule ") again:
1, eliminate beforehand indebted rate is more than the asset after gathering 70% ;
2, net indebted rate is more than 100% ;
3, cash short debt is compared be less than 1 times.

The basis steps on the different situation of red line, olivine of each blood orange of classify of room look forward to 4 archives, carry out dimensions of poor dissimilation debt to manage next. This also is considered as history on the most severe debt canal controls policy.

And go up in this watch sheet, constant stands side by side with the indebted rate of 83% and greenbelt greatly the 2nd.


"" of 3 red line causes the reaction of the enterprise quickly. At the beginning of September, the partial room look forward to that represents greatly with constant carries out big range to depreciate sales promotion; Look forward to of a few rooms considers falling this synergism plan, canal of farther executive cost accuses; Additionally many enterprises capture policy window period, start massive financing...
The clue that the industry adjusts already showed, although the enterprise is propped up in exert oneself force, but domino effect appears inevitable already.

Today, rich of famous finance and economics advocate explode expected constant big group releases the case that backs major asset to recombine a project about adjuring to report. Constant big group alludes in the report, the company must repay before January 31, 2021 130 billion yuan of capital pay strategic investor 13.7 billion yuan of share out bonus, if cannot finish on time,recombine, criterion indebted rate will involve capital fund considerably litre to 90% above, bring about company cash to flow rupture, cause a series of companies and social risk. (Action of beautiful world international bids)



















  Constant big group recombines the circumstance of the project to report about adjuring support to weigh big capital fund






















  The net passes Heng Daken to ask governmental support to answer question of its core of the analysis inside A course of study is battle is cast to betting
On September 24 message, a problem is now " the case that limited company of constant big group backs major asset to recombine a project about adjuring reports " file cut pursues travel on the network, according to this file, constant big group saves " of complaint of people government " to Guangdong, if constant is big,say real estate and deep the room cannot finish on time recombine, the likelihood is caused a series of systematization risk, include constant earth to produce cash shedding to rupture bring about constant big group cannot countervail debt, cause financial systematization risk then; Serious effect swims up and down battalion of already of look forward to; Affect obtain employment and social stability badly; Initiate advantageous position of dimension of wholesale group sex, stability of health of market of serious effect capital.

Constant big group did not give a response to this file of short duration.

To this, severe leap forward of famous and landed analyst expresses, similar the report that adjures support to province government, explain constant faced a few pressure currently greatly really, this specification is deep of the room recombine expended too much time, this has a problem apparently, can make at least many preparative work waste time is worn, also increased a lot of uncertainty at the same time, especially this year the concussion of epidemic situation. And of similar systematization risk put forward, or also be to ask local government takes seriously rise, after all constant regards the first second of Chinese as room look forward to greatly, need to maintain really those who manage is dovish. Sequel if this kind deep of the room recombine accelerate advance, so predicting question is not big, include constant big already some depreciating sales promotion, still can accelerate capital steam again.

And Wei of chief analyst magnify analyses Central Plains real estate think, above all, constant is big battalion of already of look forward to is at present normal, before indebted rate is compared, reduce somewhat really, but the fight that has 130 billion casts an agreement to will expire in January 2021, if be in A cannot appear on the market will become indebted. So, the core question with big constant is not the indebted problem of instantly, still basically be the issue that the strategy invests, if cannot be answered at the beginning of 2021,A can bring greater capital catenary pressure really.

Next, on January 13, 2020, chinese constant big group issues announcement, course and the first batch of pass an imperial examination investor of 2 batches of strategies is friendly talk things over, agree consistently to increase investment of equity of 70 billion yuan of RMBs endowment the implementation that agrees in the agreement recombines appear on the market deadline adjourns, with investor of the 3rd batch of strategies 60 billion yuan of equity invest conventional deadline to keep consistent. Predict from processing the angle of the problem looks so, do not eliminate battle of delay of Heng Daji add to project the possibility of deadline.

The 3rd, the fund question with big constant and market did not affect, core still is the issue that the strategy invests. Should solve this problem to basically also be in deep room whether recombining problem